Forecasting the next New Zealand earthquake along the Alpine Fault

From the record of past earthquakes it is possible to predict a 75% chance the fault will rupture in the next 50 years. Also  it is calculated that there is an 82% chance the earthquake will be of magnitude 8 or higher.

The fault has disturbed this land in the past, but it is what makes the place so unique -- freshly minted by the forces of Nature. Between the Tasman Sea and the Southern Alps is this strip of land dotted with small townships and connected by Highway 6. No where else can you see snow capped mountains at sea level. The scenery is classic - the rivers run blue, the hillsides are all shades of green with a backdrop of white mountains.

It’s raw and beautiful and an obvious destination for tourists wanting to experience New Zealand’s wilderness. 

(Note: this blog post and simulation is an extract from the April ABC News article.)

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